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Cluster :  Public Programs, Service and Needs

Session Information  : Wednesday Nov 10, 13:30 - 15:00

Title:  Decision Making for Wildfire Response and Evacuation
Chair: Nada Petrovic,Graduate Student, Physics Department, Broida Hall, UC Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara CA 93106-9530, United States of America, petrovic@physics.ucsb.edu

Abstract Details

Title: Dynamic Resource Allocation in Wildfire Suppression
 Presenting Author: Nada Petrovic,Graduate Student, Physics Department, Broida Hall, UC Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara CA 93106-9530, United States of America, petrovic@physics.ucsb.edu
 Co-Author: David Alderson,Assistant Professor, Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Postgraduate School, 1411 Cunningham Road, Monterey CA 93943, United States of America, dlalders@nps.edu
 Jean Carlson,University of California Santa Barbara, Broida Hall, Santa Barbara, United States of America, carlson@physics.ucsb.edu
 
Abstract: Wildfire response demands dynamic decision tools because fires and suppression evolve simultaneously. Time delays can lead to larger fires and thus greater demand for resources. We capture this tension using a queuing model that treats fire progression as a birth and death process, with rates that incorporate intrinsic fire dynamics and suppression. Using this framework we explore trade-offs in effectiveness and time delay of response.
  
Title: A Space-Time Flow Optimization Model for Neighborhood Evacuation
 Presenting Author: David Alderson,Assistant Professor, Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Postgraduate School, 1411 Cunningham Road, Monterey CA 93943, United States of America, dlalders@nps.edu
 Co-Author: William Langford,LTJG, USN, Denver MEPS operations, Denver CO, United States of America, william.p.langford@mepcom.army.mil
 
Abstract: We model the evacuation of vehicles in a residential neighborhood using a space-time network flow representation. Our model solves for “best case” evacuation routes and clearing times, as could be identified and implemented by a central authority. Our models are large but can be solved efficiently and quickly. We apply this model to the Mission Canyon neighborhood near Santa Barbara, California, and contrast our results to a previous simulation-based study.
  
Title: Influence of Information Networks on Collective Evacuation Dynamics
 Presenting Author: Danielle Bassett,Postdoctoral Research Associate, University of California Santa Barbara, 6213 Broida Hall, Santa Barbara CA 93106, United States of America, dbassett@physics.ucsb.edu
 Co-Author: David Alderson,Assistant Professor, Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Postgraduate School, 1411 Cunningham Road, Monterey CA 93943, United States of America, dlalders@nps.edu
 Jean Carlson,University of California Santa Barbara, Broida Hall, Santa Barbara, United States of America, carlson@physics.ucsb.edu
 
Abstract: The collective behavior of humans during an evacuation is a poorly understood, complex phenomenon which we model as a combined centralized-decentralized consensus problem, influenced by information flow over layers of technological, social, and geographic networks. An individual's belief regarding disaster severity is constantly updated until reaching a decision threshold. We describe differential dynamics over these layers, indicating sensitivity of human decision-making to information origin.
  
Title: Making Emergency Evacuation Decisions with Uncertain Information
 Presenting Author: Emily Craparo,Naval Postgraduate School, Glasgow Hall Room 226, Monterey CA, United States of America, emcrapar@nps.edu
 Co-Author: David Alderson,Assistant Professor, Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Postgraduate School, 1411 Cunningham Road, Monterey CA 93943, United States of America, dlalders@nps.edu
 Jean Carlson,University of California Santa Barbara, Broida Hall, Santa Barbara, United States of America, carlson@physics.ucsb.edu
 
Abstract: In emergency situations, time-critical decisions must be made based on uncertain information. Situational awareness is improved through additional observation of the threat; however, observation delays action. We consider an individual decision-maker who faces an uncertain threat and who must decide when (and whether) to perform a costly evacuation. We model this evacuation decision problem using dynamic programming and establish optimal evacuation policies under a variety of cost models.