Session Detail Information
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Cluster :  Health Applications

Session Information  : Tuesday Nov 03, 16:30 - 18:00

Title:  Disease Modeling in OR
Chair: Emine Yaylali,Senior Service Fellow, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta GA 30333, United States of America, wqq3@cdc.gov

Abstract Details

Title: The Potential Impact of Reducing Indoor Tanning on Melanoma Prevention in the United States
 Presenting Author: Yuanhui Zhang,CDC, yfp5@cdc.gov
 Co-Author: Donatus Ekwueme,CDC, 4770 buford Hwy., Chamblee GA 30341, United States of America, dce3@cdc.gov
 Gery Guy,CDC, 4770 buford Hwy., Chamblee GA 30341, United States of America, irm2@cdc.gov
 Sun Hee Rim,CDC, 4770 buford Hwy., Chamblee GA 30341, United States of America, fsx5@cdc.gov
 Meg Watson,CDC, 4770 buford Hwy., Chamblee GA 30341, United States of America, eze5@cdc.gov
 
Abstract: More than 700,000 adults in the United States are treated for melanoma each year, resulting in annual direct medical costs of $3.3 billion dollars and 9,000 deaths. We developed a Markov model to estimate the health and economic impacts of reducing indoor tanning for melanoma prevention in the United States under certain assumptions. According to this model, reducing indoor tanning may result in favorable savings in medical costs and life-years, comparable to other national prevention efforts.
  
Title: Estimating the Impact of HIV Care Continuum Interventions on the Reproduction Number
 Presenting Author: Yao-hsuan Chen,CDC, xhj1@cdc.gov
 Co-Author: Paul G. Farnham,CDC, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, United States of America, pgf1@cdc.gov
 Andrew Hill,CDC, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, United States of America, fyu7@cdc.gov
 Stephanie L. Sansom,CDC, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, United States of America, sos9@cdc.gov
 
Abstract: We used a compartmental model to study HIV transmission in the United States from 2006 through 2020 among heterosexuals, men who have sex with men, including bisexual men, and injection drug users. We analyzed the impact of interventions to improve HIV diagnosis, care, and treatment on the reproduction number. Analyses using this model can provide insights into the long-term effectiveness of HIV prevention strategies.
  
Title: Stratifying Risk Groups in Compartmental Epidemic Models: Where to Draw the Line?
 Presenting Author: Margaret L. Brandeau,Professor, Stanford University, MS&E Department, Stanford CA 94305, United States of America, brandeau@stanford.edu
 Co-Author: Jeremy D. Goldhaber-fiebert,Stanford University, Center for Health Policy, Stanford CA 94305, United States of America, jeremygf@stanford.edu
 
Abstract: Disease models used to support cost-effectiveness analyses of health interventions are often stratified to reflect population heterogeneity (e.g., age, gender, risk behaviors). We examine the impact of population stratification in dynamic disease transmission models: specifically, the impact of different divisions of a population into a low-risk and a high-risk group. We show that the way in which the population is stratified can significantly affect cost-effectiveness estimates.
  
Title: Developing a Dynamic Compartmental Model of HIV in the United States
 Presenting Author: Emine Yaylali,Senior Service Fellow, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta GA 30333, United States of America, wqq3@cdc.gov
 Co-Author: Paul G. Farnham,CDC, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, United States of America, pgf1@cdc.gov
 Katherine A. Hicks,RTI Health Solutions, 200 Park Offices Drive, Research Triangle Park NC 27709, United States of America, khicks@rti.org
 Amanda Honeycutt,RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park NC 27709, United States of America, honeycutt@rti.org
 Stephanie L. Sansom,CDC, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, United States of America, sos9@cdc.gov
 Emily L. Tucker,RTI Health Solutions, 200 Park Offices Drive, Research Triangle Park NC 27709, United States of America, etucker@rti.org
 
Abstract: Over 1 million people in the US are living with HIV. To observe trends in HIV and evaluate the effectiveness of prevention interventions, we developed a dynamic compartmental model of disease progression and transmission. The population was stratified by age, sex, circumcision status, race/ethnicity, transmission group, and risk level. People progressed between compartments defined by disease status and care and treatment stage. Outcomes included HIV incidence, prevalence, and care status.